One of the few Black Republicans, a popular Secretary of State from a deeply unpopular party, and an Independent with an 84% approval rating.
Michigan is going to be one of the most suspenseful and impactful governor races in America this year.
First, we have an Independent actually making a huge splash. I have seen more ads promoting Mike Duggan than anyone else by far. Billboards on every major highway, YouTube ads, short form ads to name a few—significantly more than the other candidates. This is partly because Republicans and Democrats have not had their primary yet, so their future nominees will likely outspend him. But for now, he is everywhere. He’s also polling shockingly close to the other two party leaders at about 20%.
Second, the red and blue options have some very interesting strengths and weakness over each other that makes it hard to pick a clear winner. I’ll talk about this more later.
Finally, Michigan is a microcosm of the United States politically as a whole. The Mitten has consistently voted for the winner of the presidential election for 20 years. So the way Michigan votes says a lot about the direction our country is headed.
Michigan is considered a “purple” or “swing” state. We have two blue senators, and Democrat Gretchen Whitmer won her reelection by a margin of 10%. However, Michigan also has a Republican house majority, and voted for Trump in 2016 and 2024. I believe this is because Michigan is culturally conservative on a few issues (like immigration and identity politics), but not on abortion. Meanwhile, like other rust belt states, it is heavily aligned with unions and economic protectionism. This means a candidate who is socially conservative on some issues (but not abortion) AND who is economically protectionist, would be the “perfect fit” for Michigan.
There is a solid argument for all three candidates. Here is my summary of the strengths and weaknesses for the three main contenders:
John James
Strengths: He is probably the most outspoken on economic protectionism and “Michigan First”. Michiganders generally approve of tariffs, subsidies for domestic manufacturing, and “Buy American” policies. He also aligns with the state’s conservative leanings on immigration and identity politics. Plus, as of right now, his Super PAC has the most funding.
Weaknesses: A big part of his campaign is his relationship with Trump. This could ruin him if Trump’s approval keeps dropping, especially if he gets the endorsement. He opposes minimum wage hikes and certain union measures. He is also pro-life, which continues to be a top issue for the majority of Michiganders.
Jocelyn Benson
Strengths: She is pro-choice. She is aligned with Governor Whitmer, who is still very popular, even after 8 years. She already has support from some major unions, like the Michigan Nurses Association.
Weaknesses: The Democratic party is deeply unpopular right now and is commonly seen as “incompetent”. And again, Michiganders are largely conservative on issues like immigration, crime, and identity politics.
Mike Duggan
Strengths: He avoids the issues that come with being aligned with MAGA or the Democratic party. He has an astonishing approval rating of 84% among Detroit voters. During his tenure as Mayor, he brought down crime and revitalized the Detroit economy. Being that popular in Detroit is a big deal; the southeast region dwarfs the population of the other areas of the state. He’s pro-choice, pro-union, and he doesn’t focus on the culture war much.
Weaknesses: His giant hurdle, in my opinion, is that Independents hardly ever win. It would be unprecedented in Michigan history for an Independent to win a statewide race. Even if people like him the best, they might assume he can’t win and vote for who they think is the “lesser evil.” He also hasn’t built a big part of his platform on protectionist tariffs like John James or gotten quite as much union support as Benson.
My Prediction:
National polls suggest Trump might be at his lowest popularity of all time (39%), with the Epstein files controversy, ICE protests, and many feeling like the promised economic boom never came. If this is true for Michigan, that’s a huge blow for John James. However, the Democrats are even less popular than Trump and many Americans see the party as elitist and incompetent. If people take those opinions to the voting machine, an Independent could easily come out in first place. But the history of American partisanship suggests they won’t.
I think Benson is the most likely winner. I think Duggan has a real chance, but only if his numbers keep rising until he hits the critical mass where people go, “He can actually win, maybe voting Independent isn’t wasting my vote.” While he’s definitely still in the running, I think John James has the lowest chance. The Republican wing is more fractured and has more competition. While it’s necessary in the primary, I don’t think it will help him in the final ballot to be so closely tied with Trump, who is losing support from even die-hard MAGA fans. Michigan is not a die-hard MAGA state, it’s state that voted for Trump because he promised them tariffs, deportations, and a lower cost of living.
It really comes down to which issues Michiganders care about the most. And of course, there’s also a lot of time for opinions and circumstances to change before November. But what do you think? Did I make any misjudgments? Are you dreading this election and hate politics? Or are you upset I never mentioned Aric Nesbitt? I’d love to hear from you.
